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Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) span a broad range of length scales. As a result, the un‐resolved and under‐resolved GWs have to be represented using a sub‐grid scale (SGS) parameterization in general circulation models (GCMs). In recent years, machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as novel methods for SGS modeling of climate processes. In the widely used approach of supervised (offline) learning, the true representation of the SGS terms have to be properly extracted from high‐fidelity data (e.g., GW‐resolving simulations). However, this is a non‐trivial task, and the quality of the ML‐based parameterization significantly hinges on the quality of these SGS terms. Here, we compare three methods to extract 3D GW fluxes and the resulting drag (Gravity Wave Drag [GWD]) from high‐resolution simulations: Helmholtz decomposition, and spatial filtering to compute the Reynolds stress and the full SGS stress. In addition to previous studies that focused only on vertical fluxes by GWs, we also quantify the SGS GWD due to lateral momentum fluxes. We build and utilize a library of tropical high‐resolution (Δx = 3 km) simulations using weather research and forecasting model. Results show that the SGS lateral momentum fluxes could have a significant contribution to the total GWD. Moreover, when estimating GWD due to lateral effects, interactions between the SGS and the resolved large‐scale flow need to be considered. The sensitivity of the results to different filter type and length scale (dependent on GCM resolution) is also explored to inform the scale‐awareness in the development of data‐driven parameterizations.

 

Transfer learning (TL), which enables neural networks (NNs) to generalize out-of-distribution via targeted re-training, is becoming a powerful tool in scientific machine learning (ML) applications such as weather/climate prediction and turbulence modeling. Effective TL requires knowing (1) how to re-train NNs? and (2) what physics are learned during TL? Here, we present novel analyses and a framework addressing (1)–(2) for a broad range of multi-scale, nonlinear, dynamical systems. Our approach combines spectral (e.g. Fourier) analyses of such systems with spectral analyses of convolutional NNs, revealing physical connections between the systems and what the NN learns (a combination of low-, high-, band-pass filters and Gabor filters). Integrating these analyses, we introduce a general framework that identifies the best re-training procedure for a given problem based on physics and NN theory. As test case, we explain the physics of TL in subgrid-scale modeling of several setups of 2D turbulence. Furthermore, these analyses show that in these cases, the shallowest convolution layers are the best to re-train, which is consistent with our physics-guided framework but is against the common wisdom guiding TL in the ML literature. Our work provides a new avenue for optimal and explainable TL, and a step toward fully explainable NNs, for wide-ranging applications in science and engineering, such as climate change modeling.

 

The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large‐scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150‐day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal‐mean circulation, and in hemispheric‐scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150‐day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced‐order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is associated with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM's variability connect to the models' ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

 

Recent years have seen a surge in interest in building deep learning-based fully data-driven models for weather prediction. Such deep learning models, if trained on observations can mitigate certain biases in current state-of-the-art weather models, some of which stem from inaccurate representation of subgrid-scale processes. However, these data-driven models, being over-parameterized, require a lot of training data which may not be available from reanalysis (observational data) products. Moreover, an accurate, noise-free, initial condition to start forecasting with a data-driven weather model is not available in realistic scenarios. Finally, deterministic data-driven forecasting models suffer from issues with long-term stability and unphysical climate drift, which makes these data-driven models unsuitable for computing climate statistics. Given these challenges, previous studies have tried to pre-train deep learning-based weather forecasting models on a large amount of imperfect long-term climate model simulations and then re-train them on available observational data. In this article, we propose a convolutional variational autoencoder (VAE)-based stochastic data-driven model that is pre-trained on an imperfect climate model simulation from a two-layer quasi-geostrophic flow and re-trained, using transfer learning, on a small number of noisy observations from a perfect simulation. This re-trained model then performs stochastic forecasting with a noisy initial condition sampled from the perfect simulation. We show that our ensemble-based stochastic data-driven model outperforms a baseline deterministic encoder–decoder-based convolutional model in terms of short-term skills, while remaining stable for long-term climate simulations yielding accurate climatology.

 

Abstract To better understand the dynamics and impacts of blocking events, their 3D structure needs to be further investigated. We present a comprehensive composite analysis of the 3D structure of blocks and its response to future climate change over North Pacific, North Atlantic, and Russia in summers and winters using reanalysis and two large-ensemble datasets from CESM1 and GFDLCM3. In reanalysis, over both ocean and land, the anomalous winds are equivalent-barotropic in the troposphere and stratosphere, and temperature anomalies are positive throughout the troposphere and negative in the lower stratosphere. The main seasonal and regional differences are that blocks are larger/stronger in winters; over oceans, the temperature anomaly is shifted westward due to latent heating. Analyzing the temperature tendency equation shows that in all three sectors, adiabatic warming due to subsidence is the main driver of the positive temperature anomaly; however, depending on season and region, meridional thermal advection and latent heating might have leading-order contributions too. Both GCMs are found to reproduce the climatological 3D structure remarkably well, but sometimes disagree on future changes. Overall, the future summertime response is weakening of all fields (except for specific humidity), although the impact on near-surface temperature is not necessarily weakened; e.g., the blocking-driven near-surface warming over Russia intensifies. The wintertime response is strengthening of all fields, except for temperature in some cases. Responses of geopotential height and temperature are shifted westward in winters, most likely due to latent heating. Results highlight the importance of process-level analyses of blocks’ 3D structure for improved understanding of the resulting temperature extremes and their future changes. 

Two distinct features of anthropogenic climate change, warming in the tropical upper troposphere and warming at the Arctic surface, have competing effects on the midlatitude jet stream’s latitudinal position, often referred to as a “tug-of-war.” Studies that investigate the jet’s response to these thermal forcings show that it is sensitive to model type, season, initial atmospheric conditions, and the shape and magnitude of the forcing. Much of this past work focuses on studying a simulation’s response to external manipulation. In contrast, we explore the potential to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) on internal variability alone and then use it to examine possible nonlinear responses of the jet to tropospheric thermal forcing that more closely resemble anthropogenic climate change. Our approach leverages the idea behind the fluctuation–dissipation theorem, which relates the internal variability of a system to its forced response but so far has been only used to quantify linear responses. We train a CNN on data from a long control run of the CESM dry dynamical core and show that it is able to skillfully predict the nonlinear response of the jet to sustained external forcing. The trained CNN provides a quick method for exploring the jet stream sensitivity to a wide range of tropospheric temperature tendencies and, considering that this method can likely be applied to any model with a long control run, could be useful for early-stage experiment design.